Each year, the Danish Energy Agency releases projections of how Denmark’s energy consumption, energy production and greenhouse gas emissions will evolve over the years leading up to 2030 based on existing policy measures. Known as “Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook 2018 – Baseline Scenario Projection Towards 2030 With Existing Measures (Frozen Policy)”, the report provides technical assessments and projections of Denmark’s progress and the challenges the country faces with regard to meeting its climate and energy targets.
The Baseline Projections reveal that the share of renewable energy in Denmark’s consumption will grow in the years leading up to 2021, due to expansion of on- and offshore wind parks, as well as increased consumption of bioenergy and an increase in the number of heat pumps. In addition, the share of renewable energy in the electricity supply is expected to reach 86 percent by 2021.
The report cautions however that the share of renewable energy in the country’s consumption will drop after 2021 if new policy initiatives are not introduced. Similarly, greenhouse gas emissions will rise, if new policy measures and initiatives are not introduced. The increased electrification that is taking place in Denmark’s heating and transport sectors, as well as the country’s popularity with tech giants such as Apple, Google and Facebook as a data centre location due to its stable energy supply, will mean that electricity consumption is projected to grow in the years leading up to 2030.
Projections such as these have been taken into account by the Danish government when negotiating the recently concluded Energy Agreement, which was announced after the release of the 2018 Energy and Climate outlook. The new Energy Agreement contains a range of policies and measures which will assist Denmark in remaining on track to meet its energy and climate obligations – which broadly speaking, involves maintaining a stable, affordable energy system that is based on renewable sources. The projected effects of the new Energy Agreement will be contained in the 2019 report.
Understanding how Denmark assesses its energy and climate performance
“Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook 2018” serves as an example for international partners of how the Danish Energy Agency works and how it establishes valuable solutions, which form the basis of Danish policy-making and planning on energy and the climate. The report can provide inspiration for international policy makers and provide deeper insight into how Denmark sets its energy and climate policies, as well as how the impact of existing policies can be assessed. Furthemore, it contains a wealth of knowledge for those looking to understand how Denmark intends to fulfil its ambition of being free of fossil fuels by 2050.
NB. The report is an English translation of the original document in Danish published in April 2018. The details of the baseline projection included here are based on the assumption of a frozen policy scenario and include existing measures as of March 2018. On June 29th, 2018, the Danish Government and all parties in Parliament agreed to a new set of measures to be introduced from 2020 to 2024. These measures, and any measures decided upon after March 2018, are not included in the current baseline projection, and will be included in the next Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook, which will be published in 2019.
Read the Denmark’s Energy and Climate Outlook 2018 – Baseline Scenario Projection Towards 2030 With Existing Measures (Frozen Policy) in full here.
Source: The Danish Energy Agency